JOURNAL OF TRAVEL RESEARCH

Pandemic severity, policy stringency, and tourism performance: A global analysis

Yang, Yang; Mao, Zhenxing (Eddie); Wen, Zhihong

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated policy effects on global tourism performance. Using daily data from 117 countries between January 23, 2020 and June 5, 2021, we applied a fixed-effects panel data model to investigate the impact and its moderators. Results show that COVID-19 cases had a significantly negative effect on tourism revenue and pricing. Specifically, a 10% increase in COVID-19 cases led to a 0.490%, 0.103%, and 0.388% decline in RevPAR, ADR, and occupancy change, respectively. Furthermore, degree of dependence on tourism, and economic support policies moderated this effect. Consequences related to revenue and demand were more remarkable for luxury tourism products than economic ones. Geographical and temporal heterogeneity were also noteworthy, and the impact of pandemic severity on revenue and demand was highly notable in certain periods, such as April and May 2020 and January to mid-March 2021. Lastly, implications are provided.

Keywords

COVID-19; policy stringency; fixed-effects panel data; tourism performance

Research topic

Tourist Flows and Location, Sustainability and Resilience

Research method

Econometrics

Geographic area

Global

Additional links for this paper

ResearchGate

Publisher Website

Web of Science

HOW TO CITE

Yang, Y., Mao, Z, and Wen, Z. (2022). Pandemic severity, policy stringency, and tourism performance: A global analysis. Journal of Travel Research, 61(8), 1928-1946

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