ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH

Modeling sequential tourist flows: Where is the next destination?

Yang, Yang; Fik, Timothy; Zhang, Jie

Abstract

This paper analyzes the subsequent decisions of tourists with respect to sequential destinations: why they visit a given destination after visiting a previous one and where they are most likely to go. Using a dataset from an on-site tourist survey in Nanjing, China, we study this decision process by partitioning it into three stages, and a nested logit model is used to estimate the determinants in each stage. Apart from the individual characteristics of tourists and destination attributes, we find that the spatial configuration of destinations (spatial structure) also tends to influence tourists’ destination choice. Finally, a series of simulations are carried out to understand the competition/substitution patterns between subsequent destinations.

Keywords

destination choice; multi-destination; nested logit; spatial configuration

Research topic

Tourist Flows and Location

Research method

Econometrics

Geographic area

China

Additional links for this paper

ResearchGate

Publisher Website

Web of Science

HOW TO CITE

Yang, Y., Fik, T.and Zhang, J. (2013). Modeling sequential tourist flows: Where is the next destination? Annals of Tourism Research, 43, 297–320.

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