TOURISM ECONOMICS

The paradox of prosperity: Casino tourism, immigration, and local employment in Macau

Zhang, Hongru; Tian, Maoshan; Yang, Yang

Abstract

This paper investigates the paradox of prosperity in Macau, where rapid casino-driven tourism growth has led to economic expansion but created labor market challenges. While tourism growth increases demand for labor, the local workforce often lacks the necessary skills, leading to a reliance on migrant workers. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model equipped with sign-restricted identification technique, we examine the macroeconomic impact of immigration on the local labor market in tourism-dependent economies. The findings show that while tourism growth boosts labor demand and wages, it also results in labor market segmentation, with immigrants filling low-wage roles while locals dominate high-skilled sectors. The study highlights the trade-off between economic growth and local workforce stability, emphasizing the need for targeted policies that align industrial diversification with workforce development-by investing in high-value-added sectors and attracting skilled migrant labor that complements, rather than displaces, local talent-to support inclusive and sustainable growth.

Keywords

casino tourism; migrant workers; labor market segmentation; structural vector autoregression; impulse response functions

Research topic

AI and Big Data, Tourist Flows and Location, Sustainability and Resilience

Research method

Econometrics

Geographic area

China

Additional links for this paper

ResearchGate

Publisher Website

Web of Science

HOW TO CITE

Zhang, H., Tian, M., & Yang, Y. (2025). The paradox of prosperity: Casino tourism, immigration, and local employment in Macau. Tourism Economics, 13548166251364303.

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