ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH

Search query and tourism forecasting during the pandemic: When and where can digital footprints be helpful as predictors?

Yang, Yang; Fan, Yawen; Jiang, Lan; Liu, Xiaohui

Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, daily tourism demand forecasting provides actionable insight on tourism operations amid intense uncertainty. This paper applies the lasso method to predict daily tourism demand across 74 countries in 2020. We evaluate the usefulness of online search queries in boosting forecasting accuracy. The lasso method is used to select appropriate predictors and their lag orders. Results indicate that, in general, no evidence supports the usefulness of Google Trends data in generating more accurate forecasts. However, in some countries, the data can be useful for reducing the forecasting errors. Regression analysis further demonstrates that the relative usefulness of online search queries is associated with pandemic severity, the dominance of inbound tourism, and island geography. Lastly, implications are provided.(c) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords

Tourism forecasting; Lasso method; Google trends; COVID-19

Research topic

AI and Big Data, Tourist Flows and Location

Research method

Econometrics

Geographic area

Global

Additional links for this paper

ResearchGate

Publisher Website

Web of Science

HOW TO CITE

Yang, Y., Fan, Y., Jiang, L. and Liu, X. (2022). Search query and tourism forecasting during the pandemic: When and where can digital footprints be helpful as predictors? Annals of Tourism Research, 93, 103365

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