Bitcoin has undergone quite a journey in recent years. Originally more of a niche interest, Bitcoin has gained widespread investment and mainstream acceptance. And it’s gone through a few falls and climbs. So as we near the end of the year, will more people be aiming to convert BTC to USD, or has Bitcoin had its day?
Bitcoin’s current status
Sites such as Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, and Binance regularly update the status of Bitcoin. Right now, BTC price is at $61,948.95 (at the time of writing), which is towards the higher end of BTC’s trajectory over the last 30 days. Its high point during that time was $69.987.54, while Bitcoin’s all-time high was $73,750.07 – that was in March this year.
The circulating supply is 19.75m BTC with a fully diluted market cap at $1.3t.
So… is BTC set to surge?
Forbes described BTC’s recent period as “tumultuous” but noted that things had improved over the last year. They said that “unforeseen events such as the Terra Luna crash, FTX decline, and macroeconomic factors” had contributed to crypto decreasing in value.
But then Bitcoin surged, hence the all-time high in March this year. However, Forbes does advise that “the future of Bitcoin is unknown” and that “retail investors must be very cautious about every move of Bitcoin”.
One promising event that may drive a surge in price was Bitcoin’s halving. Bitcoin’s monetary policy dictates that Bitcoin’s supply rate is cut in half every four years. This usually precedes a surge in price.
But the surge hasn’t happened yet, after the halving in April this year.
In previous years, though, 150 days after each halving event (in 2012, 2016, and 2020), Bitcoin’s price increased dramatically. In 2012, $12.35 became $127 – a greater than ninefold increase. Four years later, $650.53 rose to $758.81, and in 2020, $8,821.42 increased to $10,943.
Another factor that may drive growth is the recent habit of “Bitcoin Whales” (large investors) accumulating Bitcoin. These “Whales” are investing heavily, and this may contribute to a boost in BTC price.
Has Bitcoin’s climb been straightforward up until now?
Data about Bitcoin’s pricing became available in mid-2010 after it was launched in 2009. 2010 was also the year of a legendary Bitcoin tale as an owner offered 10,000 BTC for – no, not the 60-odd thousand USD that you’d receive today – two pizzas.
It wasn’t until February 2011 that BTC crossed $1. In May that year, it exceeded $8. In June, it was at nearly $30.
So it was a steady climb from there? Not really – by the end of that year, it was back down to $4.70.
2013 was a significant year for Bitcoin, as it reached $70, and by April 2013 it was past $100. Between 2013 and 2017, Bitcoin really broke through into the mainstream, and by the end of December 2017, it was above $19,000.
2018 saw a downtrend as BTC dropped by nearly 50% in the first quarter. 2019 saw Bitcoin climb and confuse some observers – Forbes reported in April 2019 that a price surge left “many analysts and traders unsure what exactly triggered the uptick, with little change for bitcoin’s fundamentals.”
Forbes said in that same article, “Though the record for the most daily bitcoin transactions was set back in the midst of bitcoin’s epic late 2017 bull run (at 490,000) the number of daily transactions has been steadily rising since mid-2018 after falling under 200,000 per day at the beginning of the year.”
2020 started promisingly enough – until the COVID pandemic prompted a fall. But by December of 2020, it was not far off $30,000.
2021 started very hopefully and BTC was above $64,000 by the spring, but it seemed the only way from there was down, and international politics meant BTC dropped by more than 50% again within a few months. But Bitcoin bounced back in the autumn and by October it was back up at over $60,000.
So… in short, no – Bitcoin’s trajectory has been anything but straightforward.
What’s the number at the end of 2024 likely to be?
It’s been mooted that by the end of the year, Bitcoin could be propelled to between $90k and $100k. Rajagopal Menon, vice president of a cryptocurrency exchange, is eyeing that target. He told The Economic Times:
*…“2024 is expected to be a golden year for cryptos” and said, “The markets will be awash with liquidity and most asset prices including Bitcoin will go to the moon”…
The Forbes article notes that the $100k figure may be met with psychological resistance. Round numbers tend to dictate a slight stalling, says Menon. Bitcoin may rise above $90k but it seems unlikely that Bitcoin will hit that intimidating $100k mark.
People have predicted a future $1,000,000 price. Is that possible?
Forbes says that “Bitcoin enthusiasts often make overly optimistic and sometimes unrealistic predictions for their favorite cryptocurrency.”
Forbes do, however, quote Himanshu Maradiya (founder and chairman of CIFDAQ Blockchain Ecosystem) as stating, “While predicting Bitcoin will reach $1,000,000 by 2025 might seem overly optimistic, several factors make such a scenario plausible. The increasing adoption of Bitcoin, various countries approving BTC ETF, the weakening of traditional fiat currencies due to hyperinflation, and the rising profitability for BTC miners are key drivers that could significantly boost its value.”
So while a $1,000,000 price may seem like a dream, who knows? Anything’s possible.
(Economic Times Source *https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/crypto-talk-election-year-economic-policies-could-propel-bitcoin-to-new-heights-predicts-rajagopal-menon-of-wazirx/articleshow/110452014.cms –